I was reading THIS article.
During the period 2000 to 2010, CGM focus fund delivered an 18% annualised returns while the benchmark S&P 500 was almost flat. This means $100,000 invested in 2000 would have become around $500,000 in 10 years. Capital multiplied by 5 times.
Morningstar, a mutual fund rating agency, studied the performance of the fund and how much an average investor made money on the same. The surprising finding was that while the fund delivered 18%, the average investor lost 11%. Why? Because of the same old behaviour problem which we keep highlighting. After good performance for few quarters, investors pour in money. After few quarters of bad performance, they redeem the money. They don’t stay the course through ups and downs, to capture the actual returns a fund provides.
Davis Advisors conducted a study of funds performance from 1991 to 2010. During these two decades, while equity funds on an average provided 9.9% returns, the average investor earned only 3.8%. They lost 6.1% because of bad behaviour; chasing performance.
Over a 10 year period, even the best investor or best fund, underperforms for a period of not less than three years. According to Davis Advisors, during one third of the time, all long term best performers become worst performers.
That’s why we never allow you to chase performance. Every single fund in your portfolio would go through periods of under performance during ten or twenty year holding period. There is not even one fund which does not go through periods of underperformance.
What is important in mutual fund investing is what we avoid; like thematic and sectoral funds etc. Also what is important is the fund houses we work with. Some fund houses are notoriously known for long periods of underperformance, lack of process, poor fund management skills, taking excessive concentration risk etc. We only suggest funds which has a long history of performing consistently over a period of time; across bull and bear markets.
Once chosen, how much ever pressure, sometimes some of you put, we don’t change the portfolio. In your own interest, we don’t budge a bit. Because we know for sure no fund can avoid underperformance. What is important is that is it a routine phenomenon or something fundamentally had changed for bad. In the rare cases of something likely to go bad permanently, we then suggest change. Otherwise, it is sticking to the chosen portfolio with discipline.
What is our biggest value add? If a XYZ fund has delivered 15% annualised returns over last 10 years, our clients would have also got the same 15% returns. It looks very simple but extremely rare. You may not even be aware how difficult it is to do this. The fund’s performance and investors return seldom matches because they don’t stay the course and keep chasing the recent performers.
Fund selection is only a hygiene factor. More than what we choose, it is important that what all we avoid. Once that is taken care, what matters more is mentoring your behaviour to ensure you stay the course without chasing the performance.
As we always say, you chase you loose.
Don’t be a loser.
Happy Investing !